July 23, 2026 (data through July 22)
UW-FRI Inseason Forecast Reports Available Here
Figure A. Cumulative C+E Comparison: Comparison of daily cumulative C+E observed for Bristol Bay in 2026, with expected daily values (blue curve). Expected daily values are calculated relative to the 2026 preseason forecast and the average distribution of inshore arrivals (1990–2025). Connected gray dots show the 2026 observed daily cumulative C+E. Green dashed line represents expectations if the run is 2 days early, and red dashed line shows expected total C+E if the run is 2 days late.
Figure B. Daily Catch and Escapement: Observed catch and escapement for years 2022–2025 as stacked bars, compared with 2026 (top). Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total Bristol Bay run size in millions of sockeye is shown at the right.
Figure C. Daily Naknek-Kvichak and Nushagak District C+E: Observed daily catch and escapement by district for years 2022-2026 as stacked bars. Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total run for each district and year is listed in the upper right center in millions of sockeye.
Figure D. Daily Ugashik and Egegik District C+E: Observed daily catch and escapement by district for years 2022-2026 as stacked bars. Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total run for each district and year is listed in the upper right center in millions of sockeye.
Figure E. Comparison of Expected & Observed Daily Port Moller Index: 2026 observed and interpolated (gray and black bars) UW-FRI Port Moller Index is compared with expected daily index values (red line and shaded area) for a Bristol Bay run equal to the preseason forecast with average run timing, and exhibiting average Port Moller to inshore travel time (TT) and run-per-index (RPI). Expected daily index values for a run at the preseason forecast, with TT and RPI equal to those observed in 2022-2025 are plotted with blue lines and symbols. Black bars are interpolated data.
Figure F. Expected C+E Days: Total number of days in which the catch + escapement exceeded 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0 million fish as a function of the total run size from 1965 to 2025. Fitted lines indicate the expected number of days in excess, for a specific total return. Shaded area encompasses the data for total returns between 36 and 46 million fish. Red outlined diamonds are 2025 observed C+E days in excess of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0 million fish. Note: the red outlined diamonds will be stacked on the horizontal axis until the first 1.0 million fish day is recorded.
Figure G. Bristol Bay Sea Surface Temperature: 2023-2026 satellite-derived estimates of daily sea surface temperature (SST) for the Bristol Bay region (degrees F). Note that on days with significant cloud cover, SST estimates will be smoothed across space. Red points indicate Port Moller Test Fishery stations.
Figure H. Current Escapement Relative to Escapement Goal Ranges: Comparison of current total escapement by river system to the established escapement goal range. Note: Within these ranges, escapement targets will vary based on run size projections.
Acknowledgments
Bristol Bay catch and escapement data were collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, with support from the Bristol Bay Fisheries Collaborative (BBFC). The Port Moller Test Fishery is operated by the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute (BBSRI). Data visualization and interpretation is produced by UW-FRI, please direct any questions to Curry Cunningham (UAF) 907-360-4217 or Chris Boatright (UW) at 907-843-2720.