BRISTOL BAY DAILY UPDATES

july 24, 2020 (data through July 23)

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Figure A. Cumulative C+E Comparison: Comparison of daily cumulative C+E observed for Bristol Bay in 2020, and expected daily values (blue curve). Expected daily values are calculated relative to the 2020 preseason forecast and the average distribution of inshore arrivals (1980–2019). Connected gray dots show the 2020 observed daily cumulative C+E. Green dashed line represents expectations if the run is 2 days early, red dashed line if the run is 2 days late, red dashed line if the run is 2 days late.

Figure B. Daily Catch and Escapement: Observed catch and escapement for years 2016–2019 as stacked bars, compared with 2020 (top). Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray.  Total Bristol Bay run size in millions of sockeye is shown at the right.

Figure C. Daily Naknek-Kvichak and Nushagak District C+E: Observed daily catch and escapement by district for years 2016-2020 as stacked bars. Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total run for each district and year is listed in the upper right center in millions of sockeye.

Figure D. Daily Ugashik and Egegik District C+E: Observed daily catch and escapement by district for years 2016-2020 as stacked bars. Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total run for each district and year is listed in the upper right center in millions of sockeye.

Figure E. Comparison of Expected & Observed Daily Port Moller Index: 2020 observed and interpolated (gray and black bars) UW-FRI Port Moller Index is compared with expected daily index values (red line and shaded area) for a Bristol Bay run equal to the preseason forecast with average run timing, and exhibiting average Port Moller to inshore travel time (TT) and run-per-index (RPI). Expected daily index values for a run at the preseason forecast, with TT and RPI equal to those observed in 2016-2019 are plotted with blue lines and symbols.

Figure F. Expected C+E Days: Total number of days in which the catch + escapement exceeded 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0 million fish as a function of the total run size from 1965 to 2019. Fitted lines indicate the expected number of days in excess, for a specific total return. Shaded area encompasses the data for total returns between 45 and 53 million fish. Red outlined diamonds are 2020 observed C+E days in excess of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0 million fish. Note: the red outlined diamonds will be stacked on the horizontal axis until the first 1.0 million fish day is recorded.

Figure G. GOA Sockeye Escapement: 2014-2020 cumulative sockeye escapements to select Gulf of Alaska river systems.

Acknowledgments

Bristol Bay catch and escapement data were collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, with support from the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute. Data interpretation is conducted by UW-FRI, please direct any questions to Curry Cunningham or Chris Boatright at 907-842-5380.